WDC

Western Digital Corporation

Technology · Computer Hardware & Storage
3
/5
Moderate
BOTTOM LINE

Western Digital faces moderate AGI risk — its physical storage products are needed more than ever for AI workloads, but customer concentration in IT/cloud and the possibility of AGI-driven storage technology breakthroughs create meaningful uncertainty.

BUSINESS OVERVIEW

Western Digital is a leading data storage company that designs, manufactures, and sells hard disk drives (HDDs) and NAND flash-based solid-state drives (SSDs), memory cards, and USB flash drives. The company operates through two primary business units: HDD and Flash. Western Digital competes with Seagate in HDDs and with Samsung, SK Hynix/Solidigm, Micron, and Kioxia in NAND flash storage. The company announced plans to separate into two independent companies (HDD and Flash) which is expected to complete in 2024-2025.

REVENUE SOURCES
Enterprise/data center HDDs (Ultrastar series)Enterprise SSDs (Ultrastar DC series)Desktop HDDs (WD Blue, WD Black)NAS HDDs (WD Red)Surveillance HDDs (WD Purple)Client SSDs (WD Blue, WD Black SN series)Portable external drives (My Passport, My Book)SanDisk consumer flash products (SD cards, USB drives, portable SSDs)WD_BLACK gaming storageFlash memory wafers (from joint venture with Kioxia)
PRIMARY CUSTOMERS

Western Digital's primary customers include hyperscale cloud providers (AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Meta), enterprise OEMs (Dell, HPE, Lenovo), PC OEMs, retail consumers, professional photographers/videographers (SanDisk), and distributors. Cloud and data center customers are the largest and fastest-growing segment for both HDD and Flash.

AGI EXPOSURE ANALYSIS

Western Digital manufactures physical storage devices — hard disk drives (HDDs) and NAND flash/SSDs. Like Seagate, the physical products cannot be replaced by software. AGI cannot eliminate the need to store data on physical media. However, WDC's business depends significantly on data center customers (hyperscalers, cloud providers) that are IT companies, and on consumer electronics OEMs. WDC's customers include cloud hyperscalers, enterprise IT departments, PC OEMs, and consumer electronics companies. The hyperscaler/cloud segment is growing and benefits from AI-driven data growth. Enterprise IT could shrink as AGI automates workloads. Consumer PC storage depends on device demand. The customer mix is a blend of AGI beneficiaries (hyperscalers) and AGI-vulnerable (traditional enterprise IT).

RISK FACTORS
  • Significant revenue from IT companies and data center customers who could consolidate
  • Enterprise IT segment faces headwinds as AGI automates traditional IT workloads
  • AGI could invent novel storage technologies that obsolete magnetic and NAND flash
  • Consumer PC market could shrink if AGI shifts computing to the cloud
  • Commodity nature of storage means AGI-optimized competitors could undercut on price
  • Company is mid-separation (HDD/flash split), adding execution risk during a disruptive period
RESILIENCE FACTORS
  • Physical storage hardware is needed for AGI — training data, model weights, and inference logs require massive storage
  • NAND flash is essential for AI inference servers requiring fast local storage
  • HDDs remain the most cost-effective storage for data lakes (5-10x cheaper per TB than SSDs)
  • Global data creation continues exponential growth regardless of AGI
  • Content creation by AGI (text, images, video) actually increases storage demand
  • Regulatory data retention requirements create baseline storage demand