Starbucks faces very low AGI disruption risk — people will continue drinking coffee and seeking social spaces regardless of whether AGI automates knowledge work.
Starbucks is the world's largest specialty coffee company, operating and licensing over 38,000 stores across more than 80 countries. The company roasts, markets, and retails high-quality specialty coffee, along with handcrafted beverages, food items, and consumer packaged goods. Starbucks also sells packaged coffee and tea products through grocery channels via its Global Coffee Alliance with Nestle, and operates a highly successful loyalty program (Starbucks Rewards) with tens of millions of active members.
Starbucks serves a broad consumer base, primarily urban and suburban adults aged 25-54, skewing toward higher-income professionals and millennials/Gen Z. The typical Starbucks customer visits multiple times per week. Licensed store customers include airport operators, hotel chains, and grocery retailers. Channel development customers include Nestle, grocery chains, and convenience stores.
Starbucks operates physical coffee shops where humans prepare and consume beverages and food. AGI cannot brew coffee, serve customers in-store, or replace the social experience of a coffee shop. The core product is a physical consumable combined with a 'third place' experience. This is about as far from software-replaceable as a business can be. Starbucks serves the general consumer population. While a disproportionate share of customers are urban professionals and knowledge workers who stop for coffee during work commutes, the core demand — caffeine consumption and social gathering — is a human behavioral constant. Even if knowledge workers are displaced, people still drink coffee.