Microsoft faces a paradox: its largest revenue streams serve knowledge workers who AGI could eliminate, but its strategic investments position it as a potential AGI platform owner — making it simultaneously one of the most threatened and most advantaged companies.
Microsoft is the world's largest software company and second-largest cloud computing provider, operating across productivity software, cloud infrastructure, operating systems, gaming, and enterprise services. The company's Azure cloud platform is a major growth driver, competing with AWS. Microsoft has made massive investments in AI through its partnership with OpenAI and integration of Copilot AI assistants across its product suite. The company serves virtually every segment of the technology market from individual consumers to the world's largest enterprises and governments.
Enterprises of all sizes (from SMBs to Fortune 500), government agencies, educational institutions, developers, IT professionals, and consumers. Azure competes for cloud workloads from virtually every industry. Microsoft 365 is used by most knowledge workers globally. Xbox serves consumer gamers.
Microsoft's core products — Windows, Office, and enterprise software — are tools for knowledge workers. If AGI replaces knowledge workers, the need for Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Outlook, and Teams collapses. Azure cloud benefits from AGI compute demand, but traditional software licensing (still the majority of revenue) faces existential risk. Windows as an OS becomes irrelevant if AGI agents don't need graphical interfaces. Enterprise customers employ millions of knowledge workers who use Microsoft 365. If AGI eliminates 50-80% of knowledge work, seat-based licensing revenue craters. IT departments — heavy Microsoft spenders — would shrink dramatically. However, Azure infrastructure revenue could grow as AGI workloads scale.