Alphabet is uniquely positioned as both a top AGI developer and a company whose core search advertising business is directly threatened by AGI - the outcome hinges on whether it can successfully cannibalize itself.
Alphabet is the parent company of Google and several other subsidiaries. Google dominates internet search, online advertising, mobile operating systems (Android), web browsers (Chrome), and cloud computing. Alphabet also operates YouTube, Waymo (autonomous vehicles), Verily (life sciences), DeepMind (AI research), and other 'Other Bets' ventures. The vast majority of revenue comes from digital advertising across Google Search, YouTube, and the Google Display Network.
Alphabet's advertising revenue comes from millions of businesses of all sizes worldwide that purchase ads through Google Ads. Google Cloud serves enterprises, startups, and government agencies. Android and consumer products serve billions of individual users. YouTube serves both content creators and advertisers. Google Workspace competes for enterprise productivity against Microsoft 365.
Alphabet faces a paradox: it is both the leading developer of AGI AND the company most disrupted by it. Google Search (57% of revenue via ads) is directly threatened by AI assistants that provide answers without clicking through to ad-supported results. If users ask an AGI agent instead of Googling, search ad revenue collapses. YouTube ads could be affected if AGI generates personalized entertainment. However, Google Cloud benefits from AI compute demand, and DeepMind/Google AI are at the frontier of AGI research. Google's advertising customers are businesses of all types, but many are digital-first companies that themselves could be disrupted by AGI. If AGI agents handle purchasing decisions directly (AI-mediated commerce), the entire search advertising model could be disintermediated.