Booking Holdings faces high AGI disruption risk as an information intermediary whose core value proposition -- aggregating and comparing travel options -- is precisely the kind of task AGI agents would handle natively, though its massive supply network and leisure travel demand provide some buffer.
Booking Holdings is the world's largest online travel agency, operating platforms that connect travelers with accommodations, rental cars, flights, restaurant reservations, and experiences. The company operates through several major brands including Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, Kayak, and OpenTable. Revenue is primarily earned through commissions and fees charged to travel service providers (hotels, airlines, car rental agencies) when bookings are made through its platforms. The company processes over 1 billion room nights annually and operates in over 220 countries.
Booking Holdings serves two-sided markets: consumers/travelers looking to book travel accommodations, flights, and rental cars, and travel service providers (hotels, airlines, car rental companies, restaurants) that pay commissions or listing fees. The majority of revenue comes from independent hotels and accommodation providers in Europe, though the company has significant global reach. OpenTable serves restaurants and diners.
AGI could fundamentally replace the travel booking intermediary model. An AGI travel agent could directly negotiate with hotels, airlines, and rental car companies on behalf of consumers, eliminating the need for aggregation platforms like Booking.com, Priceline, and Kayak. AGI could handle the entire travel planning lifecycle -- researching destinations, comparing options, booking optimal itineraries, and managing changes -- without needing a visual search interface. The commission-based OTA model is essentially an information arbitrage business that AGI collapses. On the customer side, business travel could decline significantly if AGI enables remote collaboration so realistic that in-person meetings become unnecessary. However, leisure travel is deeply human and unlikely to disappear. On the supply side, hotels and property managers would still exist but might route direct bookings through AGI agents rather than through OTAs, cutting out Booking's middleman role.