ASML

ASML Holding N.V.

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment / Industrial Machinery
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BOTTOM LINE

ASML holds the most irreplaceable monopoly in the technology supply chain - its EUV machines are required to manufacture every advanced AI chip, making it the ultimate beneficiary of AGI-driven compute demand.

BUSINESS OVERVIEW

ASML is a Dutch company that is the world's sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are essential for producing the most advanced semiconductor chips. Lithography is the process of printing circuit patterns onto silicon wafers, and ASML's machines are irreplaceable in the fabrication of leading-edge chips at 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, and below. ASML also produces deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems for less advanced nodes. The company has an absolute monopoly on EUV technology.

REVENUE SOURCES
EUV lithography systems (TWINSCAN NXE and EXE series)High-NA EUV lithography systems (TWINSCAN EXE:5000 series - next generation)DUV lithography systems (TWINSCAN NXT and XT series)Metrology and inspection systemsHolistic lithography solutions (software and computational lithography)Customer support and field servicesRefurbished lithography systems
PRIMARY CUSTOMERS

ASML's customers are the world's leading semiconductor manufacturers. The customer base is extremely concentrated: TSMC (largest customer, ~30-35% of revenue), Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, and Micron are the primary buyers of EUV systems. A smaller number of additional chipmakers purchase DUV systems. China-based fabs have been significant DUV customers, though export restrictions are limiting this.

AGI EXPOSURE ANALYSIS

ASML is the sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, essential for manufacturing advanced semiconductor chips at 7nm and below. There is literally no alternative supplier on Earth. AGI cannot replace a physical machine that uses plasma-generated EUV light to pattern silicon wafers at atomic scale. Every advanced AI chip (NVIDIA H100/B200, AMD MI300, Apple M-series, Google TPU) requires ASML's EUV machines to manufacture. ASML's customers are the world's leading chip fabs: TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, and Micron. AI/AGI drives massive demand for advanced chips, which means massive demand for ASML EUV machines.

RISK FACTORS
  • Geopolitical restrictions (Dutch/US export controls) limit sales to China, reducing addressable market
  • Extreme concentration: only 3-4 customers for EUV machines (TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix)
  • Semiconductor cyclicality could cause temporary order delays
  • If AGI somehow reduces the need for leading-edge chips (extremely unlikely), EUV demand would soften
  • High-NA EUV adoption timeline could be slower than expected
  • Theoretical risk: breakthrough in chip manufacturing that doesn't require lithography (quantum computing at scale)
RESILIENCE FACTORS
  • ABSOLUTE MONOPOLY on EUV lithography - no competitor exists or is close to existing
  • EUV machines cost $150-400M+ each with 70%+ gross margins
  • AI chip demand drives unprecedented need for advanced lithography
  • 30+ years of R&D and $10B+ invested in EUV technology - impossible to replicate
  • Installed base of 200+ EUV systems generates recurring service revenue
  • High-NA EUV (next generation) extends monopoly to 2nm and beyond
  • Each new chip node requires MORE lithography passes, increasing ASML content per chip
  • Government fab subsidies (CHIPS Act, EU Chips Act) drive capacity expansion requiring ASML tools
  • Physical manufacturing equipment is the ultimate 'atoms not bits' business