ARM

Arm Holdings plc

Technology · Semiconductors / IP Licensing
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BOTTOM LINE

Arm's chip architecture IP is foundational infrastructure for all computing including AI - it collects royalties on processors regardless of what tasks they perform, making it a structural beneficiary of AGI-driven compute proliferation.

BUSINESS OVERVIEW

Arm designs and licenses CPU architecture and processor intellectual property (IP) that powers virtually all smartphones and an increasing share of servers, automotive systems, and IoT devices. Unlike traditional chip companies, Arm does not manufacture chips. Instead, it licenses its instruction set architecture (ISA) and CPU/GPU core designs to semiconductor companies and OEMs who then build their own chips. Arm collects both upfront license fees and per-unit royalties on every chip shipped using its technology.

REVENUE SOURCES
Arm architecture licenses (instruction set architecture)Cortex-A CPU cores (high-performance, for smartphones/servers)Cortex-M CPU cores (microcontrollers, IoT, embedded)Cortex-R CPU cores (real-time applications, automotive, storage)Neoverse CPU cores (data center and cloud server designs)Mali GPU coresEthos NPU (neural processing unit for AI/ML)Arm Total Compute and Arm Compute SubsystemsDevelopment tools and software ecosystemArm Flexible Access licensing program
PRIMARY CUSTOMERS

Arm's customers are the world's leading chip designers and manufacturers including Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, MediaTek, NVIDIA, Broadcom, Google, Amazon (for Graviton), Microsoft, and hundreds of other semiconductor companies. These licensees design chips for smartphones, servers, automotive, IoT, and embedded systems. Over 280 billion Arm-based chips have been shipped to date.

AGI EXPOSURE ANALYSIS

Arm licenses chip architecture (instruction set architecture and CPU/GPU core designs) to virtually every major chip company in the world. AGI cannot replace the need for chip architectures -- every processor needs an instruction set, and Arm's architecture powers 99%+ of smartphones, most IoT devices, and a growing share of data center, automotive, and PC chips. AGI could theoretically help design competing architectures (like RISC-V), but Arm's ecosystem (software compatibility, developer tools, decades of optimization) creates enormous switching costs. Arm's customers are chip designers who build processors for every market, and many AI accelerators (NVIDIA Grace, Amazon Graviton, Google Axion) use Arm CPU cores.

RISK FACTORS
  • RISC-V open-source architecture is a growing competitive threat, and AGI could accelerate RISC-V ecosystem development
  • AGI could help companies design custom architectures more easily, reducing dependence on Arm licensing
  • Concentration risk: Apple is Arm's largest customer and could theoretically design its own ISA
  • If AGI dramatically reduces smartphone replacement cycles, royalty volume growth slows
  • China market restrictions and geopolitical tensions could limit Arm's addressable market
  • Royalty model means revenue per chip is small - vulnerable to pricing pressure
RESILIENCE FACTORS
  • 99%+ smartphone market share creates an ecosystem moat nearly impossible to replicate
  • Software compatibility layer (billions of Arm-compiled applications) creates massive switching costs
  • AI chip demand drives new Arm licensing - NVIDIA, Amazon, Google all use Arm for AI servers
  • Expanding into higher-value markets (data center, automotive) increases royalty rates
  • Physical chip architecture IP is necessary regardless of what software runs on it
  • Per-chip royalty model means Arm benefits from ANY increase in chip volumes
  • Armv9 architecture commands higher royalties than previous generations
  • 40+ year ecosystem with thousands of software developers and tools